December 12th, 2023: Rabbit’s foot

Foreword

This is a quick note, which tends to be just off the cuff thoughts/ideas that look at current market situations, and to try to encourage some discussions.

CPI came in hotter than expected, the exact opposite of what I’ve expected yesterday, yet stocks are up, and my QQQ call spreads made money. Wut?

As usual, a reminder that I am not a financial professional by training — I am a software engineer by training, and by trade. The following is based on my personal understanding, which is gained through self-study and working in finance for a few years.

If you find anything that you feel is incorrect, please feel free to leave a comment, and discuss your thoughts.

Rabbit’s foot

As I’ve noted yesterday, I had expected CPI to come in cooler than expected, thus causing markets to rise. Instead, CPI came in slightly hotter than expected, but after a small dip in the morning, markets are now up.

So while my premise was entirely wrong, my QQQ call spreads are up and I’ve taken the profits.

As I’ve noted before — It’s good to be great, it’s better to be lucky.

PPI and FOMC

PPI and FOMC decisions are coming tomorrow. Given the unstoppable nature of the market, I’m inclined to just shrug my shoulders and go along with the flow.

If the market wishes to go up despite stronger NFP (last Friday) and stronger CPI, then it seems like there’s a decent chance it’ll find a reason to go up anyway tomorrow.

Sometimes you just have to laugh — If the world wants to throw money at you, the least you can do is to open your pockets.

StockClubs

If you want to follow along and see what other stupid things I do, feel free to follow me on StockClubs — note that this is only one of 10+ of my brokerage accounts, and I’m an investor in StockClubs.